Transparency in the Paris Agreement

Establishing a credible and effective transparency system will be both crucial and challenging for the climate regime based on the pledge and review process established in the Paris Agreement. The Agreement provides for review of achievements under national pledges (Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs), but much of this information will become available only well after key steps in the launch of this latest attempt to control human influence on the climate. Still, in these early years, information and understanding of individual and collective performance, and of relative national burdens under the NDCs, will play an important role in the success or failure of the Agreement. However, because of the phasing of various steps in the 5-year cycles under the Agreement and the unavoidable delays of two or more years to produce and review government reports, the Climate Convention and other intergovernmental institutions are ill-suited to carry out timely analyses of progress. Consequently, in advance of formal procedures, academic and other non-governmental groups are going to provide analyses based on available data and their own methodologies. We explore this transparency challenge, using the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, to construct sample analyses, and consider ways that efforts outside official channels can make an effective contribution to the success of the Agreement.We gratefully acknowledge the financial support for this work provided by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change through a consortium of industrial and foundation sponsors and Federal awards, including the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science under DE-FG02-94ER61937 and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under XA-83600001-1. For a complete list of sponsors and the U.S. government funding sources, please visit http://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors/all

The late stages of evolution of helium star-neutron star binaries and the formation of double neutron star systems

With a view to understanding the formation of double neutron-stars (DNS), we investigate the late stages of evolution of helium stars with masses of 2.8 - 6.4 Msun in binary systems with a 1.4 Msun neutron-star companion. We found that mass transfer from 2.8 - 3.3 Msun helium stars and from 3.3 - 3.8 Msun in very close orbits (P_orb > 0.25d) will end up in a common-envelope (CE) and spiral-in phase due to the development of a convective helium envelope. If the neutron star has sufficient time to complete the spiraling-in process before the core collapses, the system will produce very tight DNSs (P_orb ~ 0.01d) with a merger timescale of the order of 1 Myr or less. These systems would have important consequences for the detection rate of GWR and for the understanding of GRB progenitors. On the other hand, if the time left until the explosion is shorter than the orbital-decay timescale, the system will undergo a SN explosion during the CE phase. Helium stars with masses 3.3 - 3.8 Msun in wider orbits (P_orb > 0.25d) and those more massive than 3.8 Msun do not go through CE evolution. The remnants of these massive helium stars are DNSs with periods in the range of 0.1 - 1 d. This suggests that this range of mass includes the progenitors of the galactic DNSs with close orbits (B1913+16 and B1534+12). A minimum kick velocity of 70 km/s and 0 km/s (for B1913+16 and B1534+12, respectively) must have been imparted at the birth of the pulsar's companion. The DNSs with wider orbits (J1518+4904 and probably J1811-1736) are produced from helium star-neutron star binaries which avoid RLOF, with the helium star more massive than 2.5 Msun. For these systems the minimum kick velocities are 50 km/s and 10 km/s (for J1518+4904 and J1811-1736, respectively).Comment: 16 pages, latex, 12 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Active Amplification of the Terrestrial Albedo to Mitigate Climate Change: An Exploratory Study

This study explores the potential to enhance the reflectance of solar insolation by the human settlement and grassland components of the Earth's terrestrial surface as a climate change mitigation measure. Preliminary estimates derived using a static radiative transfer model indicate that such efforts could amplify the planetary albedo enough to offset the current global annual average level of radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases by as much as 30 percent or 0.76 W/m2. Terrestrial albedo amplification may thus extend, by about 25 years, the time available to advance the development and use of low-emission energy conversion technologies which ultimately remain essential to mitigate long-term climate change. However, additional study is needed to confirm the estimates reported here and to assess the economic and environmental impacts of active land-surface albedo amplification as a climate change mitigation measure.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figures. In press with Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, N